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Forecasts from July 2017 to February 2019

stats con chris
2022-04-27
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Of all the forecasts given from July 2017 to February 2019, we show in how many of them we were right. The article is divided in 5 parts: i) cryptocurrencies, ii) forex, iii) stock market, iv) FIFA World Cup, and v) Despacito. The credibility of the forecasts reached 90%.

All these forecasts are registered in my Youtube channel. A summary of this article with some extra info appears in the following video:

(This video is not yet available)

1. Cryptocurrency market

The cryptocurrency (C) forecasts appear in the following videos:

The math behind the trading fees.

The math behind the charts.

The first video was published on Oct. 31^st, 2018 and the second one on Feb. 3^rd, 2019. In the following table, we summarize the forecasts given for LTC, XRP, BTC, and GNO:

Table I: Forecasts on cryptocurrencies.
C	Forecast
	12:44: The most spectacular. 13:03: It has more potential. 19:16: Shows momentum.
	05:33: I love XRP.
	05:21: It keeps falling. 06:15: Do not invest.
	06:25: My favorite coin. 07:31: I like it. 10:00: It is my favorite.

The results were:

Table II: Results on cryptocurrencies.
C	Result
	From Jan. 15^th to Feb. 10^th, 2019, it grows from 30.2 to 47.0 USD.
	From Oct. 31^st to Nov. 06^th, 2018, it grows from 0.44 to 0.56 USD.
	The market was bearish until Feb. 08^th, 2019.
	I always made profits with Gnosis. This is shown in the video.

These forecasts were fulfilled, then 4 checks, 0 mistakes.

2. Forex market

The forecast related to the forex market was focused on the USD/PEN currency exchange. This appears in the following video:

Make money exchanging currencies.

In summary, on Sep. 24^th, 2018, we bought dollars at 3.32 PEN and forecast that the exchange rate would grow over time. This was the case, a month and a half later we made a profit of 25.40 PEN, then 1 check, 0 mistakes.

3. Stock market

The forecasts for the companies (C) that are listed on the stock exchange appear in the following videos:

The math behind the charts.

Initial public offering of Avast.

Make money with Snapchat.

Make money with Goku.

The first video was published on Feb. 03^rd, 2018 and corresponds to the forecast given for Renault. The second video was published on Apr. 20^th, 2018, and corresponds to Avast. The third video, published on Jun. 13^th, 2018, corresponds to Snapchat. Finally, the fourth video, published on Aug. 20^th, 2018, corresponds to Netflix, Toei Animation, and Apple. These are summarized in the following table:

Table III: Forecasts on the stock market.
C	Forecast
	00:57: It will grow.
	08:55: I will buy.
	06:34: I bought on May 23^rd.
	05:44: It is overbought.
	14:07: Invest in Goku.
	02:05: Boosted by the iPhone.

The results were:

Table IV: Results on the stock exchange.
C	Result
	I bought Renault shares on Jan. 21^st, 2019 at a value of 56.9 EUR and then sold them on Feb. 05^th at 60.5 EUR. On February 13^th, I bought back these shares at 56.7 EUR to sell them later. In the forecast, I considered the value of 70 EUR as the upper bound. On Apr. 18^th, 2019, Renault reached the maximum value of 64.2 EUR. Although it did not touch the upper bound, it is considered a correct forecast because, as detailed in the video, the two purchases were made at their lows and the sale was at its maximum.
	Although Avast lost its value in the first month, in the fourth month it reached an all-time high, and over time it did not stop growing.
	I bought Snap shares on May 23^rd, 2018, and then sold them 10 days later, making a huge profit because on those dates Snap grew from 10.6 to 12.8 USD.
	The forecast was given on Aug. 20^th, 2018. Netflix reached the maximum value of 422 USD in Jun. 2018. Since then, it did not grow again. It hit a new record in Apr. 2019 due to the global crisis triggered by COVID-19.
	The anime Dragon Ball Super (DBS) was aired from Jul. 5^th, 2015 to Mar. 25^th, 2018. In this period of time the shares of Toei Animation, which has the rights of the anime, jumped from 1,300 to 3,800 JPY. Then, it was expected that if Goku comes back, the shares of Toei should jump again. This was true, Toei did not grow once DBS finished, but when the movie DBS: Broly was released on Dec. 14^th, 2018, Toei's shares jumped in a few weeks from 3,800 to 4,800 JPY.
	On Aug. 20^th, 2018 we mentioned that Apple grew thanks to the iPhone. So it is clear that if the iPhone sales fall, Apple's stock should fall. This became true at the end of 2018. iPhone sales fell and Apple shares plummeted from 56 to 36 USD. It took Apple one year to recover, hitting a new record in Oct. 2019.

These forecasts were fulfilled, then 6 checks, 0 mistakes.

4. The FIFA World Cup

The World Cup forecasts appear in the following videos:

Make money reselling tickets.

Which teams reach the final.

Which teams reach the round of 16.

The ranking before the World Cup.

The algorithm of the group draw.

Peru qualifies for the World Cup.

Playoffs for the World Cup.

World Cup Qualifiers.

Each forecast is related to a video (V). In the following table, we list these forecasts in chronological order:

Table V: Forecasts about the World Cup.
V	Forecast
1	04:22: The profit is ~5000 EUR.
2	06:07: Belgium beats Brazil. 06:22: Final: Belgium vs Spain.
3	06:32: The data must be fulfilled. 07:34: These teams move on.
4	08:30: Peru ranks in the top 11. 08:41: Tied with Spain.
5	01:24: I'll explain the draw.
6	00:08: The 10 reasons. 07:49: Peru will go to Moscow.
7	08:41: Sweden will beat Italy. 08:47: The teams that advance.
8	07:54: Peru & Argentina pass. 08:24: Peru plays the playoffs.

The results were:

Table VI: Results about the World Cup.
V	Result
1	The screenshot shown in the video corresponds to the tickets that I sold. It is considered a successful forecast because I dared to buy the tickets to sell them later on at a higher price.
2	Belgium beat Brazil, but the final match was France vs Croatia.
3	The data shown in the video was fulfilled. Regarding the May FIFA ranking, (7, 6, 2, 2) teams from pots (1, 2, 3, 4), respectively, qualified; however, I failed to specify the actual teams that qualified. For example, I considered Peru, Morocco, Germany, Tunisia, and Poland as the qualifying teams but they did not reach the round of 16.
4	The June FIFA ranking was fulfilled, with Spain and Peru tying in the tenth and eleventh position, respectively.
5	The algorithm was correct, but it is not considered a good prediction because setting up an algorithm is not a very difficult task.
6	Peru qualified for the World Cup.
7	As predicted, Switzerland, Croatia, Sweden, Australia, Denmark, and Peru qualified.
8	The result was correct, Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Colombia, and Peru qualified; however, it is not considered a good prediction, even though we said that Peru was going to end in the fifth position, because this prediction was made under the premise that Colombia beat Paraguay, but actually, Paraguay won the match.

These forecasts were partially fulfilled, then 6 checks, 2 neutrals, 2 mistakes.

5. The Despacito song

The last forecasts are related to Despacito. They appear in the following videos:

Linear extrapolation with Despacito.

Integral calculus with Despacito.

In summary, using mathematics, we forecast that Despacito would reach the figure of 3 billion views on YouTube in Aug. 2017 and the figure of 5 billion views in Apr. 2018. These predictions were fulfilled. Despacito reached the figure of 3 billion on Aug. 4^th, 2017 and the figure of 5 billion on April 4^th, 2018; therefore, 2 checks, 0 mistakes.

Finally, adding all the results we have 17 checks, 2 neutrals and 2 mistakes. Correct predictions add one point, neutral ones add half a point, and mistaken ones add zero points; therefore, out of a total of 21 points, 18 points were obtained, giving a credibility of 86%. However, if we rule out neutral results, the probability rises to ~90%.